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Autonomous Vehicle Sales to Reach 10 Million Annually in 2030

Executive Summary

A new study by Wards Intelligence concludes five automakers and six suppliers currently are leading the race to put self-driving vehicles on the road, including Daimler, General Motors and Waymo.

Level 4 and Level 5 autonomous vehicles will make up close to 10% of the global new-vehicle market in 2030, representing an annual volume of more than 10 million units by then, a new report by Wards Intelligence predicts.

Leading the way for now in the race to put self-driving technology on the road are five automakers and six suppliers/disruptors from the 36 companies tracked, Wards Intelligence says. Among those on the list of frontrunners are Continental, Daimler, General Motors, NVIDIA, Volkswagen and Waymo.

“The Autonomous Vehicle Roadmap” report also concludes that while the industry has a clear handle on the technology needed for Level 4 vehicles that will operate in geo-fenced areas, full Level 5 autonomy remains at least a decade away.

Other findings from the study:

  • North America will lead in early adoption of autonomous vehicles, followed by Europe, but China will take control in 2027 and account for more than 40% of the market by 2030.
  • The best near-term business cases for Level 4 AV technology are likely in the commercial-vehicle sector.
  • Ride-hailing services will launch small-scale and pilot AV programs by 2019, but such services won’t begin to become ubiquitous until the 2025 timeframe.
  • The best-positioned automakers have access to the most advanced technology, established stakes or strategic partnerships in mobility schemes, developed aggressive electrification plans and control strong brand positions.
  • Suppliers likely to be most successful have unique technology, are involved in strategic development projects with key OEMs and others, currently have strong supply relationships with automakers and are in position to serve as technology integrators in AV product programs.

Included in The Autonomous Vehicle Roadmap are verbatim Q&As with key industry executives and results of an exclusive Wards Intelligence industry survey, as well as a detailed global forecast.

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