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Continued Inventory Growth in November Won’t Necessarily Translate to Significant Sales Gains in December, Q1-2023

Executive Summary

Inventory gains continue to outpace sales, especially with pickups and sport/utility vehicles. If December sales don’t at least match November’s 14.1-million-unit annualized rate, inventory could rise again. Not necessarily bad, but because it is a low-volume month for production due to holiday-related plant shutdowns combined with typically being one of the strongest months for sales volumes, December usually ends with lower inventory. A sequential increase in inventory at the end of the year could be further confirmation of flagging demand – especially for gas-guzzling trucks - that continues into 2023.

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