Senior Industry Analyst - Forecasting
Haig focuses on market analysis and future vehicle trends.
Latest From Haig Stoddard
Unless monthly sales start running higher than the beginning-month inventory on hand, expect sales to remain well below demand for the next several months.
May’s downturn from March-April’s combined 18 million-plus annualized rate indicates U.S. market volume will remain well below existing demand – and probably get worse before improving - until North American automakers can overcome the microchip shortage and shore up production.
Continually leaner inventory is expected to dampen sales over the next few months, but assuming supply-chain issues mostly are ironed out this summer, deliveries should end the year with a bang.
Excluding 2020’s pandemic-smacked totals, North America production in first-half 2021 is running at 10-year lows, with impacts from the microchip shortage likely continuing in the second half.
LMC forecasts global light-vehicle production in 2023 of nearly 96 million units, topping the most recent peak in 2017 of 95.1 million.
Contradicting the juggernaut results of the past several months, lack of inventory already has been capping sales since the latter part of 2020, meaning pent-up demand is building at the same time sales are bursting at the seams.