Because of the usual holiday-related plant downtime, on top of stoppages and slowdowns that still will be caused by the ongoing supply-chain disruptions, vehicle production for the U.S. market will weaken enough in December that inventory likely declines after rising in November. However, growth is expected to continue in Q1-2022.

Despite another round of production cuts, there remain signs the supply-chain problems are abating in North America, including that first-in-a-long-time sequential gains in October for U.S. light-vehicle sales and inventory continue in November.

Europe and North America are heading toward year-over-year declines in 2021, while China, though forecast for an increase, is ending the year with a resurgence in losses related to the semiconductor shortage.

Sequential increases in sales and inventory in October, as well as expected gains in production, could be concrete signs the U.S. market is ready to resume steady growth back to pre-Covid levels.

Though still weak, October’s 13.0 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate marked the first month-to-month increase since April, and – depending on the extent inventory was negatively impacted during the month by the global supply-chain disruptions – puts upside on the combined Q4 outlook currently pegged at the same total of 13.0 million.

Even though the fourth quarter is forecast to decline to a 13.0-million-unit annualized rate from Q3’s 13.3 million, U.S. light-vehicle sales are expected to continue rising month-over-month in November and December from October’s forecast 12.6 million, marking what should be the start of a long period of growth.