Despite the amount of pent-up demand waiting to be tapped, without an increase in incentives combined with dealers selling fewer vehicles above sticker price, waning availability of affordable offerings on dealer lots will cause sales gains to lag the expected growth in inventory.

Although supply-chain disruptions still are creating volatility, and keeping most automakers from building to capacity, starting with an overbuild from expectations in August, there appears some upside to production, or at least more stability, to the final four months of the year.

Never-ending supply-related production disruptions, continued dearth of inventory, lack of sales growth and economic headwinds. Hopes are waning for the U.S. market to emerge in 2022 or even 2023 from the quagmire it fell into close to three years ago at the start of the pandemic. While growth still is expected from now through the end of next year, the short-term outlook still always seems to worsen, with sales in 2022 now likely will be lower than the weak results of the past two years. Haig Stoddard will detail the current outlook in North America, with a focus on the U.S., for the rest of 2022 and 2023, highlighting signs and data indicators to watch for that point toward strength or weakness.

While inventory for most segments is rising, stock levels for affordable vehicles continue to dwindle. If incentives are used to boost demand over the remainder of the year, look for more deals on large pickups and SUVs.

Despite still-elevated fuel prices, fullsize trucks as a group recorded increased sales year-over-year for the first time in 14 months and posted record August market share of 28.3%. Also, while deliveries of cross/utility vehicles and cars failed to break their long string of declines, nearly one-in-three vehicles sold in August was a pickup or sport/utility vehicle.

Renewed strength in China, continuation of growth in South America and expected year-over-year gains in North America over the remainder of the year might not be enough to offset the dwindling prospects for Europe, and global deliveries in entire-2022 might not even match 2021’s total.