September, with its ultimately unknown total of strike-related losses, follows a production shortfall in August of 22,400 units, but output last month still finished 4.9% above same-month 2022. If the all parties involved can come to terms within the next two weeks, fourth-quarter output could nearly match its pre-pandemic total.

Production is closing in on pre-pandemic levels and sales mostly have outdone expectations. At the same time, with dealer inventory gradually improving automakers continue to raise retail prices while also allotting more production for less-profitable fleet volume. There remain existing and potential headwinds related to economic factors, geopolitics and the possibility of factory shutdowns as contract talks begin with the two major automotive unions in the U.S. and Canada.

Haig Stoddard will detail the current outlook in North America, with a focus on the U.S., for the rest of 2023 and first half of 2024, highlighting data points to watch that could point toward strength or weakness.

The possibility in September that other automakers will benefit much from buyers defecting from the Detroit 3 brands is negligible. The vehicles currently impacted by shutdowns either are products with high brand loyalty, in segments dominated by the three strike-impacted manufacturers or have plenty of inventory.

The eight vehicles built at the three sites closed Sept. 15 from the UAW-called strikes compete in segments dominated by Ford, GM and Stellantis, leaving it unlikely that lost sales of those models could lead to big gains at other automakers. In fact, in some cases there is a good chance lost sales at one company are filled by one of the other two. The strike-hit triumvirate are even more dominant in the fullsize pickup and SUV segments, meaning it will take lengthy shutdowns at plants building CUVs and cars before non-UAW-built vehicles get real volume benefits from declining inventory at Ford, GM or Stellantis.

The UAW has stated it is not opposed to stopping work at all plants it represents in the U.S. In that extreme scenario, estimated U.S. productions losses in September could average up to 19,000 units per day. If Unifor in Canada were to do the same, estimated daily losses there would be 2,800 units.

Because the U.S. is where most of the production in North America occurs for each of the Detroit Three, UAW actions have the potential to make the biggest impact. However, shutdowns in Canada could still cause considerable disruption, and closures in the U.S. and Canada can lead to lost output in Mexico.