At the vehicle-plant level, there will be more than enough capacity in place to meet rising BEV demand over the next seven years. However, although there still is time to accelerate (or pull back) on current BEV plans, there will remain enough flexibility for automakers in North America to continue using up to 80% of their capacity for ICE vehicles in 2030.

Rising inventory, combined with pent-up demand, is keeping growth going mostly by holding the long list of economic- and price-related headwinds at bay, but there is potential for demand to sharply drop at the end of the month – and in June - if an agreement on the U.S. debt ceiling remains elusive and further spooks consumers.

The overbuild helps explain April's U.S. sales results, which came in stronger than expected due to a month-end surge in deliveries. At the same time, the additional gain in inventory puts more upside to the North America light-vehicle sales outlook of 17.9 million units in 2023, including to the 15.1 million forecasted for the U.S.

In this special edition of the North America Barometer, Haig Stoddard will go beyond addressing the region’s short-term projections by also reviewing the 5-year forecasts past 2023 for the market and its top manufacturers. With the industry expected to enter 2024 still reeling from the chaos started in 2020 by the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic – and subsequent supply-chain disruptions – the presentation will showcase current major trends as factors to track coming out of 2023, which ultimately will influence sales, production and inventory levels through 2028.

April’s inventory mix shows automakers are not backing off pushing higher profit vehicles – especially fullsize trucks – but they are increasing availability of lower-priced cars, CUVs and SUVs. Increased availability of less costly vehicles bodes well for second-quarter sales to top Q1’s 15.1 million annualized rate.

Higher interest rates, elevated prices and fear of recession undoubtedly are pushing some consumers out of the market, but pent-up demand (especially from fleets), increased availability and an economy still seeing job growth and wage increases are offsetting the headwinds. Incentives are rising from rock-bottom lows, which helps, but those gains are more in line with what would be expected as inventory rises from historic lows rather than from automakers simply reacting to consumer pullback.