Outlook

North America light vehicle production forecast by vehicle type and country; by manufacturer, vehicle type, and country; by manufacturer, country, and plant; and by manufacturer, platform, and plant by month for 2022-2024. Includes list of models with their associated platform.

Dave Zoia, Content Director, Haig Stoddard, Principal Forecaster, Bob Gritzinger, Principal Analyst Advanced Powertrains, Steve Bell, Chief Analyst Connectivity, Drew Winter, Principal Analyst Cockpit of the Future and Christie Schweinsberg, Principal Analyst Sustainability & The Digital Economy, will weigh in on overall market expectations, talk about where things stand with emerging technology and the key megatrends, make a few predictions on what the automotive industry is likely to see in 2023 and answer any questions you have about the year ahead.

With supply-chain disruptions starting to stabilize, and available production getting closer to capacity, the economy could be the biggest obstacle to growth in 2023. However, how automakers ultimately react to the underlying trends tied to the pandemic, and subsequent parts shortages, remains unclear. Inventory is rising but production still is weighted toward high-margin vehicles, a dynamic that continues to elevate retail prices while keeping lower income buyers out of the market. Fleet customers still are waiting for enough capacity to be freed up to start filling their pent-up demand, which could act as a buffer to any weakening in the retail sector. Those are some of the trends and questions Haig Stoddard will address in his outlook for 2023 for the North American market.

Dealers ripped up their business models, embraced efficiencies and slashed waste to survive the unexpected challenges of the past few years, including the chip shortage, COVID, the war and other events that caused cultural changes. At the same time, they shifted processes in sales, service, parts, and F&I to best serve customers with both electrified and internal combustion engines.

Most dealers met those challenges and continue to see profits grow despite ongoing inventory shortages. Those embracing technologies have the best chance of maintaining and accelerating that momentum, especially as EVs populate the sales offerings, during the upcoming years.

This session outlines dealers' concerns about their businesses, EV adoption and what technologies they are anxious to explore as they seek to meet challenges that include staffing shortages, EV service and parts, hybrid sales processes, and F&I transparency that satisfies consumers and regulators.

LMC presents Global Light Vehicle Recovery Track, Trends and Path Forward including a look at the near-term disruption recovery, long-term trends, and electrification trends and Outlook.

Never-ending supply-related production disruptions, continued dearth of inventory, lack of sales growth and economic headwinds. Hopes are waning for the U.S. market to emerge in 2022 or even 2023 from the quagmire it fell into close to three years ago at the start of the pandemic. While growth still is expected from now through the end of next year, the short-term outlook still always seems to worsen, with sales in 2022 now likely will be lower than the weak results of the past two years. Haig Stoddard will detail the current outlook in North America, with a focus on the U.S., for the rest of 2022 and 2023, highlighting signs and data indicators to watch for that point toward strength or weakness.

Connectivity technology underpins the future of the automotive industry. The evolution in vehicle architectures and the move to software defined vehicles depend on connectivity to ensure they are cyber secure and up to date. The rapid evolution of BEVs means the traditional vehicle business model of profit on initial sales is being replaced by lifetime earnings that rely on over the air (OTA) upgrades to enhance the vehicle value to consumers. In this scenario has connectivity become mission critical not only from a vehicle safety perspective but for the OEMs own enterprise viability?

Connectivity technology continuously advances, but what will it be used for and who is influencing its direction and adoption in automotive?

This session will share some preliminary survey results that address these fundamental questions.

A Stellantis executive recently warned the car market could collapse if BEV prices don’t come down. But BEV prices are driven by the cost of building them which in turn is driven overwhelmingly by the cost of the battery. And that is tied to relatively rare, geographically constrained materials, making battery and car manufacturing vulnerable to politics, price volatility, and supply disruptions. Car makers need a battery that is safe, durable, and inexpensive if they are to bring costs under control. That means either moving away from the current lithium and cobalt-based formulas or significantly reducing the amounts needed. But there is no single ‘best’ formula to address the fundamental five: energy density, durability, temperature stability, safety, and abundance. So, what can replace lithium and cobalt-based batteries? Which companies are developing those replacements? And how soon before it comes to market? Join us as we answer these questions and more.

The growth of electric vehicles and environmental concerns worldwide is creating demand for more sustainable interior materials and also unseen materials such as sound insulation.

The forward march of electrification continues, but there still are many unanswered questions. How quickly do BEVs need to recharge? What’s the optimal cost per kWh automakers need to achieve to make BEVs competitive with internal-combustion-engine vehicles? Is modular pack design the way forward, or will cell-to-pack take hold? Aluminum has been the most prevalent enclosure material up to now, but will that be the case in the future? Join us as we answer these questions and more by presenting the results of our 2021 Battery Electric Vehicle Future survey.

Geopolitics, inflation and never-ending global supply-chain challenges are heavily weighing on the North American market. In the wink of an eye, the outlook has reversed from upside bias to downside. The sales and production forecasts for 2022 have been significantly cut since the end of last year and are in danger of not showing growth from 2021. Haig Stoddard will detail the current outlook in North America for the second half of 2022 and touch on prospects for growth in 2023, highlighting signs and data indicators to watch for that point to more strength or weakness.

Haig Stoddard, Principal Forecaster, Forecast & Analytics, Wards Intelligence will briefly summarize the short-term global production outlook and take the pulse of the North American market as it emerges from the depths of the pandemic and related global supply-chain disruptions. The North America drill-down will cover production, sales and inventory forecasts for the remainder of 2022 and gauge the level of normalcy the region will be at by the start of 2023.